2022 predictions: China to rule EV landscape in 2022, says GlobalData

2022 Imperium ET5

Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming increasingly popular among consumers but are causing issues for automakers, who are grappling with supply chain crises and raw material shortages. In its latest report, ‘Tech, Media, & Telecom (TMT) Predictions 2022 – Thematic Research’, leading data and analytics company GlobalData predicts that Tesla and China are set to maintain their dominance in the EV sector.

As 2021 draws to a close, Amrit Dhami, Thematic Analyst at GlobalData, offers her view on these predictions:  

The lithium shortage will not affect all players equally

“In the short term, the lithium shortage will barely scuff the shoes of the big players like Tesla and Toyota, as their supply chains are more vertically integrated. Further, lithium supply issues won’t necessarily mean a drastic rise in the cost of EVs in the short run—automakers could compensate elsewhere on the production line and offer lower-quality interiors.

“Looking further into the future, Tesla and Toyota are betting on different horses for the future of EV batteries, with Toyota set on solid state. We’ll see the first EVs powered by solid-state batteries hit the roads by 2025, but these will be a lot costlier than regular lithium-ion EVs, and so won’t reach the mass market until later.”

Tesla to retain its crown in the West, but China will dominate the overall EV landscape

“Many automakers have now committed to producing EVs, but Tesla’s brand power will be problematic for BMW, Mercedes, and others in the premium space. If a consumer is willing to splash the cash on a pricier EV, they’re inclined to go for the face of the market—Tesla.

“In 2020, 48% of all EVs on the road could be found in China — more than the combined figure for the US and Europe. China’s EV fleet will be 60% of the world’s total by 2030. Xi Jinping has extended both the sales tax exemption on EVs and subsidies for domestically built EVs to the end of 2022.

“China’s large domestic market, raw materials access, and favorable government policies mean it will continue to dominate the EV landscape and won’t be as disadvantaged by the lithium shortage. Xi Jinping has facilitated the growth of the domestic EV market, causing Tesla to lose market share in China to BYD. This is not only to cement China’s dominance in EVs but also to help meet the net zero target year of 2060.”

The shift towards EVs is becoming demand led

“EVs as a proportion of new light vehicle production will rise from 5% in 2021 to 11% in 2025, with annual EV production exceeding 10 million units.

“The shift towards EVs has mainly been driven by environmental, social and governance (ESG) related legislative changes, but momentum is also becoming led by demand. This year’s energy crisis means people don’t want to be so reliant on global supply chains, accelerating the move away from petrol and diesel. Consumers are also becoming more environmentally conscious—particularly Generation Z.”